June 1st is the official start of hurricane season for the Atlantic region which ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th..
As the 2014 Hurricane season starts, it will have been 3,142 days since the last Category 3+ storm last made landfall in the U.S. These long quiet periods between killer hurricanes presents a real danger to the general public: complacency.
Atlantic hurricane season begins… Will record streak without major hurricane landfall end?
…”The U.S. has been extraordinarily fortunate lately: we have not been witness to the fury of a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) landfall since October 2005..
Such a streak, or “drought”, is unprecedented going back to 1900. As of the start of this hurricane season, the span will be 3,142 days since the last U.S. major hurricane landfall. The previous longest span is about 2½ years shorter! While this is a relief for coastal residents and businesses, it inevitably increases complacency. The longer you go between events, the less likely you are to fully respect the next one and heed warnings…”
As Steven Goddard points out: “Since the start of records in 1850, the presidency of Barack Obama has had the lowest frequency of US hurricane strikes of any president.”
Major hurricanes will certainly come, and when they do, they will encounter a public who may last remember the impact of relatively tame tropical cyclone Sandy. (Sandy was not technically a hurricane at its NJ landfall, but it did cause widespread damage due to a tidal storm surge). The wrath of a Major Hurricane striking the U.S. shores this year, will awaken all those who have forgotten the times when major hurricanes were more common.
…and from the UK comes the predication from the infamously inaccurate MET Office that almost guarantees that the U.S. will get hit by many major storms this year:
Met Office predicts below average Atlantic hurricane season
Regardless, my hurricane warning and prediction is this:
After an unprecedented quiet period for hurricane activity, when the next major hurricane strikes the U.S. it will no doubt stir up a media frenzy with live reports, “expert” sound bites, and political posturing, about how such a storm is evidence of “climate change”.